Breaking down week 15 of the NFL season, focusing on the DraftKings Sunday main slate. We take a simulation based view of the slate to find our favorite Stacks and plays.
BUF @ DET currently at a monstrous O/U of 54.5 on the DraftKings book, Far and away the highest on the slate. This game is not as popular as it should be, we won’t be highlighting these teams in our stacks but I will look to get pieces in most of my lineups.
There are a handful of games hovering around O/U of 46, but nothing else stands out.
Top Stacks:
Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans
Similar story to last week - Playing in a mid total game. Tua Tagovailoa had a great game last week but was overshadowed by some true ceiling games at QB. Tyreek Hill is back in form with back to back nice scores, especially last week. Achane has been fine, but its been 5 weeks since he was a must have RB, looking for him to be back this week as a high leverage high floor play. Our sims don’t love Jaylen Waddle, but he is still in play for larger stacks.
On the other side of the game, the Texans are coming off of a bye and getting no ownership outside of Mixon. C.J. Stroud has been disappointing outside of a couple early weeks, our sims have him in the top third of QB in what we expect to be a game that goes over the 46 total we are seeing right now. Nico Collins is one of my favorite plays on the slate, he looks to be back in form after his injury, hopefully the bye solidified that. Joe Mixon is another great Upside play but will carry sizeable ownership, I think he is good chalk this week. Finally Dalton Schultz is in our TE top 5 after a nice week 13, he continues to see decent target share even with Collins back.
The HOU - MIA game is by far my favorite play this week. I will be overweight on both sides of this game.
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels is severely under owned right now (<5% in our projections), but we still have him as a top QB play. His rushing upside is obvious, so you can easily play him in smaller stacks or solo if you build that way. Scary Terry McLaurin continues to capitalize in a very efficient manner (8 for 8 last week with 2 TD), and will be the obvious path if WAS goes off. Brian Robinson Jr. barely snuck in our top RB ranking as the last man in, his usage can be inconsistent at times and he may lose goal line work to Daniels, he will be in my player pool but left out of most WAS stacks. Zach Ertz is out #2 TE, and while everyone else plays Stone Smartt, Ertz seems like a pretty obvious pivot at TE. My main issue with WAS stacks is finding a player on NO, I typically like to play with game stacks and outside of Alvin Kamara there isn’t much that excites me. Kamara grades well in our sims, but this game means nothing to NO so there is a chance they may not play Kamara full tilt.
Other Plays
Tyrone Tracy Jr. - The middling Giants do not have much going on offense outside of Tracy. He has been a bright spot lately and grades as our #3 RB based on Upside. The price is right and there will be plenty of leverage on the field.
Cortland Sutton - Sutton has seen 8+ targets going back to Denver's bye week, and I expect that to continue against Indy in Week 15. There isn’t a ton of leverage given his ownership but he has a high floor, high ceiling that could help win tournaments.
Pat Freiermuth - Another nice pivot off the chalk Smartt, Freiermuth is still a salary saver in what is likely to be a high scoring game in Philly. He has made the most of his opportunities lately with TD in his last 2 games, I will be overweight here as well.
Jerry Juedy - Jameis Winston is still starting. Juedy will see somewhere around 80 targets.
Thank you for taking the time to read, and good luck!! Make sure to join the Discord to get any updates on the slate as we get closer to kick-off!
