Week 10 is here with another interesting slate of games! The return of some key starting players for some teams looks to throw some uncertainty into the slate, but luckily with Uncertain Edge, we have the simulations to assist us through that! In the spirit of transparency, let’s look at the hits and misses from the Week 9 breakdown!
Hits:
Falcons D/ST; Bijan Robinson; Chase Brown; Mike Gesicki; Alvin Kamara (although not as big of an upside as we wanted); De’Andre Swift
Misses:
Any Cowboys or Colts players; Fading Saquon for other Eagles - to be fair, this was called out as a dumb play in Discord!; Kyle Pitts; Marvin Harrison Jr.
Now, the simulation this week doesn’t feel particularly strongly about any specific stacks at the time of this writing. However, within some of the stacks that trend towards the top, there is still some interesting information there. Let’s take a look at how these teams may be trending based on the contest simulator:
49ers
Upon first glance, you may look at this and think “well that’s got to be Christian McCaffrey returning,” and you would be correct, but maybe not for the reason you think. McCaffrey makes his season debut coming off an achilles issue, and fantasy players have been eagerly awaiting his return. However, digging into the data, it would appear that McCaffrey’s performance may not be the reason that San Francisco stacks are performing well. Based on projections, the simulator actually wants to lean towards the passing attack. McCaffrey’s return should open up their offense and if people are going to choose to pay up for McCaffrey, GPP 101 says go the other way. Would you rather go for a Brock Purdy stack with guys like George Kittle and Jauan Jennings or gamble that McCaffrey pays off his high price tag in his first game back from a leg injury? I’m going with the former. Deebo Samuel is also viable in these stacks, but I didn’t immediately mention him because of his current projected ownership. If you can’t resist playing McCaffrey, consider him in a stack WITH Purdy to differentiate your lineup.
Vikings
Full transparency, this one is largely due to Justin Jefferson’s ridiculous upside combined with potentially lower ownership due to price and with McCaffrey on the slate. We all know what the Jaguars are at this point, and given that the Jaguars are at home to the Vikings, there’s a better chance that they can keep this game close and prevent it from getting Jefferson out of the game script. Also, Trevor Lawrence has been playing pretty well, it’s just that the rest of his team stinks so it’s not getting talked about. Jefferson becomes a must-play as a bring-back in any Jaguars stacks for those of you that want to be cute, and if JJ goes off, Sam Darnold becomes a good stacking option to go with him. I also don’t mind TJ Hockenson as part of those stacks if you think this game hits the over. If I’m picking between high-priced folks, I’d rather play Justin Jefferson over Christian McCaffrey.
Lions
FanDuel special, What makes this stacking tricky is the projections seem to like pretty much every viable player on the Lions and therefore you kind of have to pick which way you think the game script will go. Sam LaPorta is probably my favorite play based on his projections, his price, and how Jared Goff’s projections show. If you are playing any Jared Goff stacks, LaPorta pretty much needs to be in it. Amon-Ra St. Brown is probably my least favorite option here based on his upside and price. On the other side, if you want to believe in the Lions rushing attack in this game instead, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery both project very well. I lean towards Gibbs just based on projections and I think his higher price will give some leverage, but Montgomery seems to fit easier into lineups. There is also a scenario where maybe Goff doesn’t get there, but stacking LaPorta with Gibbs or Montgomery gets you there too.
Other players that maybe aren’t in stacks but that the app really likes this week:
Alvin Kamara – Yeah we’re back to this again. He didn’t quite have the upside we wanted against the PANTHERS last week, but New Orleans stacks were up there with the previous 3, but if you look at the data this week, it’s only because of Kamara’s projections. I’m ready to get hurt again.
Ladd McConkey - This one is a little chalky, but I’m trusting the simulator here. I am HOPING that people see the low over/under in this game an gravitate towards J.K. Dobbins, and against a bad Titans defense, McConkey should be able to find the end zone at least once on Sunday.
Tank Dell – On the FanDuel side, If you believe in the Detroit stacks, Tank Dell should be the bring-back there. He may be difficult to fit with his price unless you sacrifice elsewhere, but he projects well enough for his price as long as Joe Mixon does not dominate that game.
Marvin Harrison Jr. – Yeah I’m back to this again too. Last week was a burn. This week could be better, and with a lowered price tag on a guy that we’ve seen have great tournament upside, MHJ is being put into a lot of the simulation's lineups. Also, (and this is coming from a Jets fan), Sauce Gardner isn’t playing at the level he was his first two seasons. There’s some vulnerability there that I think some people may be scared off by when they see he’s playing the Jets defense.
Thank you for taking the time to read, and good luck!! Make sure to join the Discord to get any updates on the slate as we get closer to kick-off!
- Gravy
